競馬予想 G1 宝塚記念 有馬記念の覇者かそれとも大阪杯を制し無敗の6連勝馬か?

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こんにちは ともぞうです

ついにやってきました宝塚記念

有馬記念ではかなりお世話になったクロノジェネシス

ここまで無傷の6連勝レイパパレ

その他にもかなり面白い馬が出走しますね

私個人としては土曜日の競馬はお休みしていましたが馬場の確認はしていました

雨予報とも聞いていますが天気予想も確認しつつしっかり予想したいですね

個人的には人気のないところでも面白い馬がいるなと思っていますので

ここからは調教 ラップ適性 過去データからしっかり予想していきたいと思っています

最後までよろしくおねがします


競馬ランキング

宝塚記念 予想

ここからは

調教 ラップ適性 過去データ

3つの分野から予想していきます

調教

調教面ではランキング形式で発表します

また個人的気になる馬も番外編で紹介します

好調調教馬

3位 クロノジェネシス (推定1番人気) 7.0点

CW 馬なり

79.8 ー 64.4 ー 50.2 ー 37.4 ー 12.1

1週前の追い切りでは意図とした追い切りが行えなかったですが

単走で追い切ったと思えばかなりいい動きでしたし

何より2週前の追い切りがすごく評価しています

王者の風格か他の馬にはない迫力がありましたし

疑いようのない馬です

最終は軽めで行いましたルメール騎手が乗ると思っていただけに

そこだけは減点ポイントになります

2位 カデナ(推定9番人気) 7.5点

坂路 4F

53.7 ー 38.6 ー 24.7 ー 12.4

馬なりからの気合十分の動きでした

5戦目には見えないかなりいい動きでしたね

疲れは見せていませんし

いつもそこまでこの馬の調教は評価していませんが今回は

点数も高くかなりいい評価です

人気もありませんし穴を開けてくる可能性を感じました

1位 カレンブーケドール(推定3番人気) 8.0点

坂路 4F

51.8 ー 37.6 ー 25.0 ー 12.8

坂路で一番輝いていましたね

かなりいい動きでしたし合わせていた馬にも楽々先着しました

ここ最近だと1番いい仕上がりだと思います

個人的にはこの馬は相手に合わせるタイプだと思っていますが

今回はかなり強者揃いのレースになるので100%の力を出せると思っています

距離短縮も歓迎です

番外編

個人的に気になったのは3頭

  • モズベッロ 6.5点
  • レイパパレ 6.5点
  • アリストテレス 6.5点

ラップ適性

ラップ適性では

勝ち馬ラップ適性と馬券内ラップ適性で分けています

勝ち馬適性に入る馬は自動的に

馬券内にも入ってきていますので把握お願いします

勝ち馬ラップ適性馬

  • キセキ
  • カレンブーケドール
  • クロノジェネシス

馬券内ラップ適性

  • レイパパレ
  • ユニコーンライオン
  • ミスマンマミーヤ

過去データ

好走データ

 宝塚記念

  • このレースで有利な枠順 8枠 1枠 2枠
  • このレースで有利な脚質 先行
  • このレースが得意な騎手 池添謙一
  • このレースに実績がある種牡馬 バゴ
  • このレースで狙いの人気 1人気

 阪神芝2200m

  • このコースで有利な枠順 4枠 2枠 3枠
  • このコースで有利な脚質 先行
  • このコースが得意な騎手 川田将雅
  • このコースが得意な調教師 高野友和
  • このコースに実績がある種牡馬 タニノギムレット

消去データ

  • 海外馬を除く7歳以上
  • 前走12着以下
  • 前走G2で着差0.6秒以上
  • 前走重賞以外
  • 海外を除く着差0.6秒以上距離延長組
  • 前走逃げ

 消去データ突破馬

  • クロノジェネシス
  • カレンブーケドール
  • アリストテレス

最終予想

最終予想です

  • ◎クロノジェネシス
  • ○キセキ
  • ▲カレンブーケドール
  • △ミスマンマミーヤ
  • △カデナ
  • △アリストテレス

◎はクロノジェネシス

ここはあくまでも通過点だと思っています

もっと大きな舞台海外であったりで勝てると思っていますので

まずここは勝ち負けと予想しました

バゴ産駒で馬場が渋ればと言われますが

個人的には高速馬場でも十分に通用すると思っていますし

この馬はシンプルに強いと思っています

○はかなり迷いましたがキセキにしました

小頭数の外枠 距離延長はこの馬にとってはかなりプラスですし

この舞台は適性もあると思います

4年連続でることがどれだけすごいかはわかっていますし

個人的には買うタイミングはここだと感じました

騎手も福永騎手で個人的にはかなりプラスだと思っていますし

ここでは2番手の評価にしました

▲はカレンブーケドール

調教面を評価しました

前走 前前走といい競馬をしてきていますし

個人的にはその時よりもいい出来にあると感じました

相手なりに走ってしまいますし シルバーコレクター感もありますが

ここで勝ちまであるのではと感じさせる出来だと思います

レイパパレですが個人的には今回は嫌いたいです

調教もよく動いていますし馬体重も増やしてきてかなり状態面は

よく見えますが前走はかなり条件が当てはまった感がありますし

今回は斤量 距離延長と少し不安な面が多いかなと感じました

おすすめ馬券ですが

  • ◎→○▲△ 馬単
  • ◎→○▲→○▲△ 3連単フォーメーション
  • ○▲→◎→○▲△ 3連単フォーメーション

です

ここは強気勝負できると思いますし

G1も一区切り最後しっかり当てたいですね

最後までありがとうございました

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この記事を書いた人

ともぞうです
土日の競馬の予想をメインにブログ始めました
競馬は高校の時から好きで見ていました
数字などを見ることが好きで調べれば調べるほど
のめり込んでいきました
2019 2020は有馬記念で高配当を当てることができました
回収率は100%を行ったり来たりしています
平日は雑記ブログを書いています
嫁と合同で書いています
よろしくお願いします

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